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Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo

News/Business. Maria Bartiromo. Analysis of the day's winners and losers in the stock market. New.

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01:00:00

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Virtual Ch. 58 (CNBC)

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mpeg2video

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ac3

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480

TOPIC FREQUENCY

Sandy 15, Us 12, Romney 9, New York 7, Obama 5, Florida 5, America 4, U.s. 4, New Jersey 4, Schwab 4, Robert Wolf 3, Goldman Sachs 3, North Carolina 2, Austin 2, Pennsylvania 2, United States 2, S&p 2, Cnbc 2, China 2, Philadelphia 2,
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  CNBC    Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo    News/Business. Maria Bartiromo. Analysis of the  
   day's winners and losers in the stock market. New.  

    November 5, 2012
    4:00 - 5:00pm EST  

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"closing bell," with dow up 18 points and losing altitude. i'll see you tomorrow. here's maria with the second hour of the "closing bell." welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo on the floor of new york stock exchange. stock closing modestly higher ahead of tomorrow's all-important presidential election. here's how we're finishing the day on wall street. dow picking up 20 points, a bit of buying in the last half hour. volume on the light side today. nasdaq composite picking up 17.5 points, to the upside, 29999. technology was one of the better performers throughout the session today. s&p 500 picked up three points, fractional move there, about a quarter of a percent at 1417. investors taking a wait and see approach before tomorrow's presidential election. take a look at how markets might
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behave. joining me is margie of wells fargo, sandy duncan and chris bertleson and rick santelli. thanks for joining us. rick, i'm going to kick this off with you. what are traders saying ahead of tomorrow's election? >> they certainly expect a lot more movement in markets tomorrow and the following day. today was a go nowhere range day. even in the stocks they move into positive territory. dollar index has been firmly but lightly in positive territory with little turnover. same with the euro. many traders are saying, you know, it was momentum that propelled the giants in baseball. so, they're putting a lot of stock in momentum, which may be a positive for the challenger in the form of mitt romney but everybody has their own unique foibles how they want to proceed on the trading side. traders aren't giving me anything solid as a glimpse into
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who wins but they seem optimistic they think the fiscal cliff will be dealt with, but it won't be dealt with until next year and dealt with retrospectively. >> i would agree, that's what people are saying now. chris, regardless, you're saying you're staying neutral before the election. what does that mean? where are you putting your money right now? >> i think the only pull we really believe is we're going to end up with a divided -- a divided government again. that's for sure. as a consequence, when you look at the presidential outcome, i think right now the edge seems to be at obama based on the polls. but well within the margin of error. so, if you saw a romney victory, i would disagree with rick, i think you could see a pop in the markets if we saw a romney victory. from ourve, if you want to look at what you emphasize, tradeable themes on the republican side and democratic side. if you wanted to play tradeable themes on republican side for a romney victory, clearly you're
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looking at defense, energy, potentially you're looking at some of the finance sectors. on the democratic side, if president obama prevails, i think the themes you'd be playing are alternative energy, selectively health care and infrastructure. the themes are there. i just think the macro picture is really positive around the globe. improving china, a little softer condition and background in europe politically. and i think improving conditions here in the u.s. for the consumer and for manufacturing and for gdp in general. our general background is pretty positive. >> great points there. sandy, what about you? you say regardless of who wins the election, the fiscal cliff would be either downsized or deferred. what does that mean? >> well, i think downsizing is more likely. have you to factor in the hurricane as well because that's going to be a half a percentage point decline as well, coupled with, you need to get that fiscal cliff down to 1% or maybe 0.5%. i think the downsizing has to be pretty substantial. they're either going to have to defer it to the new congress and
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either a new administration or the existing one, but they've got to get it downsized pretty substantially pretty quickly. and it's going to require, because of that gridlock we're going to have again, a bipartisan concurrence. that's going to be the test in 2013. >> chris, what do you think? how do you want to invest with $1.5 billion under management, how are you allocating money today? >> i think you want to be neutral. i think you want to leave your bets at the doorstep and to take win side of the other is gambling and not investing. i think you need to look at those stocks that are really the 1980 stocks, back to the future, if you'll have it. own the companies like kimberly clark, at&t and verizon and those companies where they have steady increases of dividends and strong balance sheets and think long term. >> think longer term, not just fiscal cliff related. margie, jump in here. tell us how you see this
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election impacting stocks. >> i think it's going to be muted growth. i'm particularly concerned about higher tax rates, especially on stocks from capital ganins and dif dent tax return. i think returns will be rather muted reflecting a muted economic outlook. i think the balance between equities and high-yield bonds will be equal over the next year. in other words, mid single digit is the sort of return i'm looking for. >> because we know that rates are going to stay where they are until 2015, the fed has told us. >> that's right. they have. the thumb on the scale and you really can't fight that. so, that says interest rate securities, especially the riskier ones are not that risky because we'll have plenty of liquidity to float corporation's balance sheets so i think they'll continue to be competitive returns with most common stocks. >> chris, how worried are you about the fiscal cliff impacting economic growth in 2013, knowing that you are a long-term thi
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thinker? >> yes, i think they're going to kick the can down the road but you'll see some agreement on it. same thing true is sequestration. i think that out of that will become opportunities to go one way or the other as you see stocks that are fit to invest in. >> that's a good point. when you see turbulence, this is an opportunity for investors, so we should get some turbulence both around the election outcome, we should see turbulence around the fiscal cliff, maybe turbulence around a first quarter that might or might not have a negative handle on gdp in the first quarter. if you see those opportunities we would like to be there as investors longer term and stepping in on the global cyclical story and pro cyclical story, the technology side, those would be places we would be looking to put additional money to work if we saw that turbulence come to play. >> rick santelli, what's priced into the market at this point? is it fair to say that most believe the president wins re-election and if mitt romney
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were to win and take the white house, that would be an upside surprise for some? >> most people i talk to do think mitt romney has a fair chance. considering that, they keep it simple. in the opinion of many traders, the current administration has been a bit unfriendly to business. so, quite simply, even though the fed may have implications, bernanke easy money, if he think if mitt wins, we get a reality. as one guest pointed out, i agree with him on that. one thing universally everybody agrees, if mitt romney wins, they think energy stocks are going to be the place to really look for aggressive tendencies because a lot of the issues, for example, natural gas, fracing, they believe that regulation will be worked out and the epa will take its foot off, or forced to take its foot off and instead of crush an industry, maybe try to work within the pam ters of what it takes to get the natural gas to the marketplace. >> right. he has said that's one of his five points in terms of the
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economic buildout here, getting jobs in energy. >> yes. >> it's on his platform. it's laid out very explicitly that's a top priority. he sees it not only as an economic issue but as a job creation issue as well. >> thank you very much. we appreciate your time tonight. we'll see you soon. don't go anywhere. quick break and then a lot headed your way on this edition of the "closing bell." coming up, taxing times. goldman sachs says dividend and capital gains taxes are headed higher no matter who wins tomorrow's election. but it could be a lot more depending on who's sitting in the oval office. those sobering numbers are straight ahead. plus, holy hanging chads. how will wall street react if there's no clear winner in tomorrow's presidential election? history tells us, it may not be pretty.
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welcome back. we have news from bob pisani. >> are the markets saying obama's going to win or romney's going to win? it depends on what index you're looking at. stocks moving to the upside. the dow is up, for example. some are saying that's more indicative of a romney win. dollar up as well, the dollar index. that would tend to favor a romney win because less chances of qe3. other people are looking at bank stocks down all day saying president obama will be more punitive of president obama. that's indicative of a obama win. a lot of people noted big dividend players, r echleits, telecom, some argue higher taxes from president obama on dividends, indicate president obama likely victory. bottom line, the markets are not sending a clear signal either way. back to you. >> bob, thank you so much. here's a sobering report on taxes. goldman sachs says it doesn't matter who win. dif dent and capital gains taxes will go up regardless.
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for president obama we're talking between 20% and 30% or more. for governor romney, we're talking 19% if republicans don't win a majority in the senate. joining me, long-time obama adviser, robert wolf, former chairman of ubs america and now on reuters television. thank you for joining us. do you agree regardless of who takes the white house, investors will see tax increase? >> yes. we're all talking about the fiscal cliff. we need revenues. irrespective of who comes in to fix the debt, you'll have to raise taxes. it's clear to me. how far will they go up, do you think? people are worried about didividend taxes, 43%, which is where they'll go if they don't do anything about it by the end of the year. 15% to 43%. that sounds like a major ouch for this market. >> to me that seems like it's going to happen. i would say 20 plus, 22%, 23%.
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income back to the clinton era, 39.6%. i don't know where they're getting 43% from. >> that's where it was. when the bush tax cuts expire it goes to 43%, unless they change that. >> you may not get in the lame duck session a big deal done, but if you find $60 billion, that saves you six months of time to get a real deal done when president obama is in office. >> the same with capital gains. you're expecting capital gains similar -- >> yeah, similar to that range, 20% to 22%. >> is that priced in or is that an upset to the market? >> no, it's clearly priced in. the ceo report just came out that said you need revenues. obama's at 2 1/2 to 1. romney said he's at zero. i don't know how he can fix the debt that way. but it's clear that if you have the ceos coming out saying you
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need to raise revenues, that's the impetus of getting taxes on the table and getting the deal done. >> and getting the deficit and debt reigned in. you've had a lot of good ideas on infrastructure bank, on job creation. first of all, i know you're on the president's council for jobs. when was the last time you guys met? >> we gave the report at year-end. then we do our summits every all over the country, which is how it was designed. we had a report with 90 suggestions, of which 60 were nonlegislative. we're working on those with ceos and people around the country. so, it was alleges known that at our year-end report, that was kind of a cut-off and then we go on and start promoting the nonlegislative ideas. >> what do you think are the easy, low-hanging fruits to get job creation moving again? >> first, i listened to your show this weekend. you and austin had a great
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conversation, austin goolsbee about infrastructure. it's a no-brainer. bipartisan, public sector, government sectors, unions, it's the greatest multiplier of gdp debt. of course, this week showed very clearly this country needs infrastructure to be graded by "a" by engineers not "d" where it is. >> will we use this crisis we're coming off of, hurricane sandy, to step up the money moving into infrastructure, do you think? >> i haven't heard governor romney talk about infrastructure but being an adviser to the president, it's been at the forefront from the stimulus to the america's job act. he's always been a proponent. put the idea of a national infrastructure bank in his plan. i think it's clear governor romney or the president knows infrastructure needs to be fixed in this country. >> we talked about the tax side of the equation and, of course, the building, the infrastructure and construction side. what about spending cuts, where
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is the president in terms of actually reigning in spending so that that part of the equation also gets help in terms of deficit and debt reduction? >> i'm not involved in those day-to-day discussions but it's clear when he put out his 2.5 to 1 -- $4 fritrillion foundation, included entitlement reform. no one thinks you can get fiscal responsibility done without entitlement reform, medicaid, medicare, social security and defense. we have had a ten-year war that has not been paid for. that's the first time in u.s. history that we've had a war not paid for. and, unfortunately, time has come where we need to now pay for it. >> regardless of who's in the white house, i think i hear you saying that medicare, medicaid, they will have to be cut. they will have to look at social security, cut that. and the money into defense, you're saying, will have to be cut. >> that's my opinion have you to put everything on the table and look at whether it's means testing or what the appropriate
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age is. this is certainly, my opinion only, but it's clear that entitlement reform is the biggest percent of our spending. >> this is such an unbelievably tight race. don't know if you've ever lived and experienced so closely such a tight race in your lifetime before. for me, it's unbelievable. the latest nbc/wall street journal poll has president obama with 48% of the vote, governor romney with 47% of the vote. what do you think will sway the voters in the 11th hour tomorrow? >> i don't know what will sway the voters in the 11th hour but i don't look at national polls and worry as much about popular vote. we're looking at the battlefield states. the president leads in every one but north carolina. he's tied even in every one. from where i sit, come wednesday, president obama will be the president once again. and we will move on. you know, literally go into a lame duck session realizesing we need to start working on fiscal responsibility. hopefully next year we start
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looking at immigration reform. those would be the two things that i would recommend we need to really fix in this country. >> if the president wins re-election, will you work in the administration? >> no. i just started my new company 32 advisers. you already want me to shut it down? >> i'm just wondering if that's your goal. i know you're very close to the president. you're on the jobs council. a lot of people want to know what's happening with that jobs council. >> listen, it's been an unbelievable honor to be advise and be a friend of the united states, republican or democrat, it's been an honor. he's a close friend. i look forward to staying a close friend sxbing an outside adviser but no motive right now to go inside. >> a report out today says stocks will perform better under romney, bonds will perform better under obama. what's your gut tell you, as a student of markets for so many years? >> i don't see where they get it from other than romney saying, i won't cut taxes. if he doesn't cut taxes then
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we'll have 5 trillion more of a fiscal cliff. the whole thing doesn't hold water. the president today, the market's up over 100% since he's taken office. >> you have to throw in the federal reserve over there, though. >> the federal reserve's not going anywhere. we have been -- >> when you say the market is up "x" percent under president obama, there's also this free money all over from the fed. >> correct. but we don't see inflation and rates having an immediate backup. rates will stay low for a while. we just had qe3 come in. it's not as if the trajectory is changing. i think. -t bodes well for the market irrespective of who's president because, one, i think we'll have this last year of election behind us. two, i think you'll have clarity on fiscal deal. and, three, i actually think the u.s. gdp will grow mainly because i think housing is going to have a comeback. >> we see the beginnings of that comeback. great to talk to you as always. robert wolf, 32 advisers' ceo. no goals for the white house right now.
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since he just started his new company, robert wolf. watch our full team election coverage tomorrow night. we kick off at 5 p.m. eastern tomorrow. i'll be anchoring along with carl quintanilla at 7 p.m. we'll navigate through all the closings throughout the country. we'll be with you as we learn the winner of the white house and balance of congress breaks down tomorrow night all night on cnbc. let's get to bertha coombs. she has news on market flashes. >> a couple of companies reporting after the close here. they are tumbling. take a look at expressscripts. revenue is a little light. it's lifting the lower end of guidance for fiscal 2012. it won't give guidance until 2013. in the release it says expects claims lost from united healthcare, a weak business climate, all of that. the company views, according to them, the current consensus estimates for 2013 with overly
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aggressive. shares down about 10%. zillow getting hit. revenues were better than expected for third quarter but its fourth quarter outlook is disappointing. revenues of $30 to $31 million. some estimates above $32.5. making a small deal. >> thank you so much, bertha coombs. hold onto those generators, a powerful nor'easter packing heavy winds, rain, even snow threatens to hit areas still struggling from sandy. unbelievable. another storm coming. it's the weather report tomorrow that could have the biggest impact because it could affect the election. we'll have the latest forecast on the weather next. and later, when will gasmegedon in the northeast be over? some people waiting three, four, five hours to fill up their tanks. in nj nnl we'll take you to a checkpoint in the oil distribution system to find out when relief may be in sight.
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if we want to improve our schools... ... what should we invest in? maybe new buildings? what about updated equipment? they can help, but recent research shows... ... nothing transforms schools like investing in advanced teacher education. let's build a strong foundation. let's invest in our teachers so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. welcome back. the home stretch of the presidential election. the candidates are racing from state to state to win votes. it's all thanks to the enormous amount of spending by both campaigns. e-ma >> to give you a sense of how much campaign spending is ballooning in this election.
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we built a little memory lane. take a look back at what the races were spending back in 1980. in 1980 ronald reagan and jimmy carter together, they spent more than $528 million in that race. fast forward to the year 2000, george w. bush and al gore campaigning for the presidency spent $899 million in the year 2000. 12 years later. take a look although how this has exploded, 12 years later after big regulatory changes what we've seen is spending has increased to more than $1.7 billion just this time. that number is only spending through mid-oblctober. we won't know the total amount spent for the race for white house until the first week of december. what's fascinating is we've seen this explode over the past couple of years. it's changed the way the presidential campaigns are being run, the decisions they have to make. in past years what you saw is presidential campaigns would actually decide to pull out of certain stays because they ran
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out of money. this time around, though, we're not seeing that in 2012. they have had the money they need to campaign in all of these states marks rhea. >> so, what was -- so, what surprised you most about all this spending? the numbers are so mind-bockling. what do you think was most striking? >> you look at this, like an economist. what happens when you see this big gusher of money coming in is that it's causing inflation, if you look at it on a per registered voter basis. back in the year 2000 we saw per registered voter the campaign spent about $7 per voter. now this big gusher of money in 2012, costing them about $11.75 to reach each one of those registered voters. all it's doing is driving up the cost per voter that the campaigns have to spend. remember, on election day, one of these guys will have wasted all this money because he won't be president of the united states other one will think every dollar spent was a brilliant idea. >> we'll be watching. what a race.
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the northeast still recovering from superstorm sandy but yet another big storm is now threatening the area right after election day. plus, the weather across the country. tomorrow could be a huge factor in who wins the white house. the weather channel's jim cantore is in atlanta with the story. what can we expect? >> the storm before it gets to the northeast has to develop first and it will develop across the south. of course, florida is the big deal here. you can see with our developing storm off the carolina coast we're expecting showers. and thunderstorms over florida. plus we may even see a little bit more rain than what we have here across southern virginia, north carolina, especially later on in the day. this is going to make a fast transition up the east coast, as we get in towards wednesday. temperatures won't be incredibly cold in the south. as a matter of fact, 50s, 60s, 70s, whether you're in the rain or not will be even slate. here's the timing on wednesday, getting into more of the storm because really tuesday's issues are going to be virginia and florida in terms of how the weather's going to impact. but florida, of course, will be
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out of that on wednesday. but virginia, you'll be in this. parts of new jersey. notice here, we will bring all this rain, all the way up into new england as well. and this will be heavy wind-swept rain. those areas trying to get power back on may have to deal with rain. one of the new things we're looking at here with these models is the fact that the low itself has tracked a little bit farther to the east. so that allows the colder air to have a little bit more of a presence here. possibly into d.c. possibly into philadelphia. not too far outside of new york. areas where there's already power loss through here in through new jersey and the southern tier of new york. by the time we get into thursday, the bulk of the storm moves into new england and the adirondacks as a snowmaker for the mountains. rain in the valleys, rain in boston as well, even toward thursday night. our grip on the east coast, especially the hard-hit areas from sandy, will be over by thursday night. now, here are two models that we look at. this is the american model. i'm also going to show you the
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european model and what they do with snow. i think once we get into this 3 to 6-inch range, we could actually see additional power outages because this will be a heavy, wet snow. this is the european model, which has a much higher resolution. and may actually be portelling to something more significant. 6 to 12 inches in the poconos up to catskills. i think we'll see additional power outages. not only will we curtail current restoration and power but we may add new outages especially if we get 6 to 12 inches of snow in some areas of pennsylvania and new york. >> unbelievable. >> can you believe it? >> oh, my god. we'll hunker down and get ready. thank you so much. we'll be watching the weather channel and certainly come back to you on cnbc. jim cantore. gas lines up to three hours long in some parts of new york and new jersey. another nightmare. keel take to you a key platform in the crisis that could
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determine when the northeast gets back with gasoline. herb greenberg forecasts better than the weather channel forecasts saentd. also ahead f you're banking on market trading on who our next president will be on wednesday, some now are saying think again. the developing scenario coming next. i'm a conservative investor. i invest in what i know. i turned 65 last week. i'm getting married. planning a life.
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enormous gasoline lines in the new york area a common sight a week after saentd struck the region. with so many gasoline storage facilities offline, it's unclear how long this gas crisis could go on. kate kelly has the latest on the refueling efforts. kate? >> maria, activity is picking up at the new star truck rack behind me. 15 to 20 tankers have come for resupply today, waiting for fuel bays because all of them are new. new star like many competitors in the new jersey gas network have had a long last week. they're fighting power outages at their marine terminal and it took a good 48 hours after restart of their truck bays for customers to start rolling in. progress has been made.
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the company plans to load up its first barge tonight. a number of its damaged pump motors have been replaced and the racks received their first jet fuel truck just this is morning. there are other silver linings, too. for one thing, gas prices have sunk during this past few weeks by 9%, falling to about $3.47 according to aaa today, which will be a knight nice benefit to drivers once gas stations regain power. here's something you don't always hear. the government and coast guard did a solid for this industry in recent days according to new star officials, by issuing operating approvals very quickly to help ease the fuel shortage. still, it could be days or possibly weeks yet before the shortages ease. much remains to be done in getting terminals cleaned up and repowered and emergency supplies that have been brought in to help new york drivers is only a drop in the bucket in terms of what's needed, maria. we have goldman sachs, for instance, predicting there will be a shortfall in the next ten days or so of about 7 million
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barrels of refined products in total. meanwhile, mayor cuomo announced a total of 36 million gallons of refined products that have either come in or coming in in the coming days. that's far short of the 7 million barrels we're likely to need. >> amazing. thanks very much. kate kelly live tonight. a flood of companies meanwhile warn sandy could impacted earnings. how do you tell if it's legitimate or not? is it really sandy or something else? herb greenberg joining us. you what about e-tailers, are they impacted by sandy? >> this is such an interesting situation. sandy provides kov for all sorts of sins. look, sandy is real. we know that. it has an impact. in trying to determine what is real and what isn't, i check with someone like nick over at convergex, we started conspireing, what should we look for. he says, look, the first is did the dog eat your homework? it's one thing, the dog ate your
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homework once. it's another thing, you know, if you go from the fourth quarter to the first quarter and you get two quarters in a row of people blaming sandy. come on. that's a bit too much. and then you get something else that's very interesting, maria, especially in the fourth quarter. when we look at the margin between revenue and sales, that is, if a company says it's down -- it misses revenue estimates by, say, 3% but misses profits by, say, 10% or 20% and blaming sandy and there's that big gulf there, you have to say to yourself, you know, something might be up here, you need to dig a little further. and then when you get to the retailers, this is where it's kind of interesting because i talked to people in the field and they say, you know, this is typically a lull period anyway. grocery stores where you had a situation where, you know, perhaps they were down but people have to come in and restock for the food they lost. but here's what's interesting. say sandy affected 25% of the u.s. population in the northeast. if you have a retailer that
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maybe gets 10% of its -- or less or whatever, something less than 25% of revenue from the northeast and starts blaming sandy, have you to say, something isn't quite right there. then we get to the e-tailers, really, or netflix, this is an interesting one. a lot of people who were sitting at home with electricity and may have been loading occupy netflix. what they lost may have been traded off by the greater than expected impact from the storm. >> but, i mean, herb k they really -- can some firms come out and actually just lie about sandy? i mean, there has to be some truth to it, right? can they just say, oh, yeah, it was impacted by sandy and that's what happened? can they lie about that? >> marimaria, look who you're asking. >> maybe this is a naive question, i'm sorry. >> no, no. look who you're asking. i don't think companies necessarily lie. i think events like this we've seen in the past -- look at the olympics. it gives companies cover. it gives them cover to basically come out and say -- >> wiggle room.
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>> better than lie, wiggle room. i like that one, maria. >> thank you, herb. we'll be watching. wiggle room. thank you, herb greenberg. the final countdown is on. both candidates campaigning furiously on this election eve. for details on new ways displaced voters can cast their ballots. do new voting procedures in some states including ohio include the door to voter fraud? we'll have a debate.
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welcome back. voting will be very difficult for those in new jersey. now governor christie is allowing changes to voting system, including absentee voting by e-mail and fax. >> maria, it's a basic american right and yet officials are scrambling to provide it to thousands of residents of new york and new jersey isolated by superstorm sandy. the garden state, though, one of the hardest hit by the storm, some 780,000 customers without power, thousands still in shelters as elections day approaches. now, in addition to proving and consolidating polling station s across the state, officials have provided a few alternative. pushing people to vote early, especially over the weekend. early closes today at 4:30 p.m. helping displaced residents by helping them mail in ballots or voting via e-mail or fax, thanks to a new order by governor chris
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christie that disqualifies displaced residents as overseas voters. even so, voters face many difficulties this election season. first, voting by e-mail or fax not possible for the 20% of the state still without power and cell phone service. additionally, more gas, a scarce commodity right now, is required to get to polling stations that have been moved farther away. while national voter turnout rates remain very low, it appears the post-sandy resilience may spur turnout in new jersey. a poll on newjersey.com showed 88% of respondents say they don't care what they've been through, voting is still a privilege. back to you. >> thank you so much. if anybody thinks the markets will have clarity on wednesday morning, think again. take a look at the up to the minute polls and what they're indicating. a very close race with recounts inevidencible. then the storm factor. so many families in the northeast have no power, no heat. in some cases, no home. new jersey governor chris christie announcing that everyone can vote by fax or by
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e-mail, but how secure or reliable is that? in ohio, nearly everyone received an absentee ballot. anyone who didn't use it can vote tomorrow. then ohio will have to make sure people didn't vote twice. the lawyers are already preparing t preparing their cases on this one. john is joining me, author of "stealing elections", an expert on voter fraud. good to have you on the program. what are the chances on wednesday morning we'll know who the new president is? that's the first question. >> in 2004, which was a close race, john kerry didn't concede until 11 a.m. on wednesday. i think there's a good chance it will go into wednesday afternoon or much longer, perhaps even approaching florida, the worst case. >> so, is this an impact from the storm? what kind of an impact will the storm have on the election? >> not dramatic because new jersey is not a close state. presidentially. it might have some impact in pennsylvania, which is very heavily contested in last few
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days of the race. and i think the real problems, i think, are in our creeky, dysfunctional election system and the fact that it's very easy to manipulate it and, you know, cheat. >> well, let's talk about that. where do you think the vulnerabilities are and why is it so sis to cheat and manipulate? for example, do you think voting by fax, by e-mail is also muddying the waters in terms of cheating? >> look, this is a very bad idea. it's done at the last minute. it's not been thought out. you cannot have proper cyber security preventing people from voting twice, unless you prepare for it. in addition, spammers could easily attack the website that the votes are supposed to be cast on and they could block people from voting or they could, you know, direct people to another website. the spammers are very, very good at this. we need to have had some advance notice before we did this. >> what about voter fraud in general? put the storm and the e-mailing and the faxing aside for a moment. are you expecting we are seeing voter fraud this election? >> any election that's close
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creates temptations for people. if you put put your thumb on the scale of democracy, you can get your candidate to win. we've seen elections in recent years change from one winner to another because of creative accounting, creative recounts. and i think we have a problem here. look, there's absentee ballot fraud, which is very easy to commit in some states. voter impersonation. somebody demonstrated last april they could get the ballot of eric holder, attorney general of the united states, by asking if he was on the list. they didn't have to show the idan i.d. and didn't look anything like him. >> how do we stop this from happening? we want a democratic process and the people to choose the next president. you're saying it could be rife with fraud. >> look, we want to make it easy to vote and hard to cheat. over half the states ask for some form of i.d. that's a partial protection. we have many states that now have enhanced security on absentee ballots. the pew research center pointed out the rule problem.
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one out of eight of our voter registrations are either invalid or contain major errors. that's a scandal in this country that -- mailing houses that send to private parties keep very accurate mailing lists but our voter registration lists are a mess. >> unbelievable. let me ask you about the people who are damaged and sort of their homes and no power. we've got damaged new york metropolitan area. many because of that, they simply won't vote. does that help the president or governor romney? >> again, most of this damage is in states that are not going to be seriously contested in the race. the possible exception being philadelphia. the real tragedy here is that they may not want to vote because, obviously, they're preoccupied. you know, we have to keep our elections going. you know, we had elections during the civil war. we had elections during world war ii. we've had elections through all kinds of natural disasters. we can't change the election date or dramatically change the timing that people can make an election decision because, you
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know, congress mandates an election day. we have to make our decision tomorrow. >> and real quick on ohio, john, no president has ever been ee electric the without the state of ohio. could ohio hold things up a bit? >> yes, they have provisional votes there. for anyone you mentioned that didn't send absentee ballots and shows up at the polls anyway and some come in late. they cannot be counted, by law, for ten days. so if ohio is within 30,000 votes or so, we will not know who won ohio for ten days minimum. and then there could be a recount, which would last longer. >> unbelievable. john, thanks for laying it out. the columnist for the national review. be sure to check -- or make cnbc your election headquarters. full team coverage gets under way at 5 p.m. eastern. i'll be with you from 7 p.m. until we learn who our next president will be. i hope you'll be with us tomorrow night, election 2012. your money, your vote. "fast money" starts in a few
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minutes. melissa lee with a preview. >> top of the hour "fast money "traders are trading the biggest event of the week, presidential election. which socks and sectors should you own if governor romney or president obama wins? how does all that water get out of lower manhattan? of course, pumps. we have a company supplying pumps to sandy-stricken areas. the ceo will join us exclusively. to lock or not to lock, what impact will elections have on your mortgage rates? we have the ceo of quicken loans to give you all the answers top of the hour on "fast." >> we'll be there. what will move your money first thing tomorrow morning? that's what's up next. we have wall street's best money pros weigh in. [ male announcer ] this is joe woods' first day of work. and his new boss told him two things -- cook what you love, and save your money. joe doesn't know it yet, but he'll work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant
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welcome back. all eyes on the election tomorrow. next guests are here to tell us what the results might mean for the market. join me right now randy bateman from huntington funds, and brian lund from ditto trade. good to see you all. randy, let me kick this off with you. 30 seconds on the clock. what do you want to watch for tomorrow?
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>> okay, just as nature abhors a vacuum, certainly the market absolutely hates uncertainty. and hopefully the biggest uncertainty of the year will be resolved tomorrow. and i think we can have a pretty good market for the remaining part of the year. that having been said, every fiduciary like the huntington has developed almost d diametrically opposed strategies. the fiduciaries reposition their portfolios to reflect the economies of each one of the candidates. >> all right. we'll be watching. dean, you're up next. 30 seconds on the clock. what is most important for our money tomorrow? >> maria, believe it or not, the team at brookstone capital is a looking at something besides the election tomorrow. september german factories orders are being released. there are a slew of corporate earnings and an auction to sell $72 billion worth of bonds tomorrow. having said that, the election will dominate. the day after the election is normally about 80% more volatile than average.
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we look for some short-term volatility followed by a likely rally. 3 to 6% historically in close elections. >> all right. last but not least, brian, you're up. 30 seconds on the clock. what do you want the look at for our money tomorrow? thank you so much, randy. >> the data we're getting from our lead traders, they don't really care who wins the election, they just want clarity. that's all any market wants, clarity. tomorrow may be the worst day in the last four years to be in the market. what i would be doing tomorrow is raising a lot of cash and i wouldn't get back until one, the election is over, two, there is a clear-cut win. >> and three you see how the market reacts to the clear-cut winner. >> all right. we will be watching that thanks, everybody. of course, the election front and center. we'll see you tomorrow, or soon, gentlemen. thank you very much. take a short break. then my thoughts on why you need to get out and vote tomorrow. stick around. president obama: there's just no quit in america...
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and you're seeing that right now. over five million new jobs. exports up forty one percent. home values... rising. our auto industry... back. and our heroes are coming home. we're not there yet, but we've made real progress and the... last thing we should do is turn back now. here's my plan for the next four years: making education and training a national priority; building on our manufacturing boom; boosting american-made energy; reducing the deficits responsibly by cutting where... we can, and asking the wealthy to pay a little more.
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and ending the war in afghanistan, so we can... do some nation-building here at home. that's the right path. so read my plan, compare it to governor romney's... and decide which is better for you. it's an honor to be your president... and i'm asking for your vote... so together, we can keep moving america forward. i'm barack obama and i approve this message. looking for a better place to put your cash? here's one you may not have thought of -- fidelity. now you don't have to go to a bank to get the things you want from a bank, like no-fee atms, all over the world. free checkwriting and mobile deposits. now depositing a check is as easy as taking a picture. free online bill payments. a highly acclaimed credit card with 2% cash back into your fidelity account. open a fidelity cash management account today and discover another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. boproductivity up, costs down, thtime to market reduced... those are good things. upstairs, they will see fantasy.
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not fantasy... logistics. ups came in, analyzed our supply chain, inventory systems... ups? ups. not fantasy? who would have thought? i did. we did, bob. we did. got it. and finally today, my observation on why you must get out and vote tomorrow. there is a reason this country is the greatest country in the world. it's the freedoms and the democracy. this country is privileged to enjoy, which includes the right
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to vote. well talk very much about headline numbers, the amount of debt that we face, the crushing deficits that we face, weak economic growth, money spent on entitlements like medicare and social security, and, of course, the taxes that we pay. all of these numbers after a while can sound very removed from our daily lives and cause people to zone out. you start talking trillions, and it is simply intangible. the fact is they are not intangible at all. it is during an election year we can all look at these headline numbers that seem so removed from our individual lives and realize this is our money. yes, the money spent on infrastructure, money spent on health care, retirement, is all taxpayer dollars. and the reason we pay taxes, this is your money and it is your vote. and more to the point, this is our debt and the burden will fall on our children and their children. every four years we have an opportunity in this country to reassess. are we happy with the leadership of this country? or do we want a change? have the leaders in this country
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delivered on the promises they made to us two or four years ago? this goes for the president as well as the two sides in congress. so i implore you to use your power. do not waste this opportunity. all across the country, individuals are trying to figure out ways to get to the polls, even in the face of severe upheaval from hurricane sandy. so if they can do it, so can you. make your voice be heard. have a say in the leadership of your great country. there is a saying. we get the government we deserve. if you don't vote at all, imagine what kind of government that will be. go vote. before we go, take a look at the day on wall street today. and once again, it was taken to the sidelines ahead of disappointing torment. the dow jones industrial average in quiet volume, up about 20 points on the session at 13,112. nasdaq composite picking up 17.5 points. it was about 2/3 of 1%, just below 3,000 on the nasdaq. and the s&p 500 up just 3 points, fractional gain there at 1417. technology the big winner of the session today that